High-Stakes Races In New Jersey, Virginia, & New York City Could Signal The Political Direction of 2026

Tuesday, November 4, 2025, 8:30 A.M. ET. 3 Minute Read, By Jennifer Hodges, Political Editor: Englebrook Independent News,

WASHINGTON, DC.- As polls opened across the United States this morning, voters are headed to cast ballots in several key state and local elections that could serve as a national barometer heading into the 2026 midterms. Three high-profile contests, in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, are drawing national attention from both parties eager to gauge the mood of an increasingly divided electorate.

New Jersey: Can Republicans Flip A Deep Blue State?

     In New Jersey, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman who narrowly lost the 2021 governor’s race, faces Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill in one of the nation’s most closely watched gubernatorial battles. 

     Democrats have held the governor’s mansion since 2018, but Ciattarelli’s campaign has gained traction among suburban and working-class voters frustrated by high taxes, crime, and inflation. Polling in recent weeks shows the race within the margin of error, raising the prospect that New Jersey, a state that President Biden won by 16 points in 2020, could turn red for the first time in two decades.

     Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, has emphasized stability, education funding, and protecting abortion rights, arguing that Ciattarelli represents a “return to Trump-style politics.” Republicans, meanwhile, view the contest as a referendum on Democratic governance and affordability.

Virginia: A Test Of Momentum For Both Parties;

     In neighboring Virginia, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the current Lieutenant Governor and the state’s first Black woman elected statewide, is seeking to extend GOP control by succeeding outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin. Her Democratic challenger, Abigail Spanberger, a centrist congresswoman from the Richmond suburbs, has made a competitive push by focusing on bipartisan leadership and kitchen-table economics.

     Virginia’s race has become a symbolic battleground for both national parties. A win for Spanberger would suggest a Democratic resurgence in a state President Biden won twice, but Republicans have recently regained ground in. Conversely, an Earle-Sears victory would reaffirm Virginia’s shift toward the right in recent cycles and could embolden Republican strategies ahead of 2026.

New York City: A Three-Way Fight For City Hall;

     New York City voters face one of the most unusual mayoral races in decades, a three-way contest featuring Socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, and conservative radio host Curtis Sliwa. The race has fractured traditional party loyalties, with Cuomo seeking a political comeback as an independent, Mamdani energizing younger progressive voters, and Sliwa appealing to disaffected Democrats and public safety advocates.

     Polling suggests no candidate has surpassed 50 percent support, setting the stage for ranked-choice voting to decide the outcome. Crime, housing affordability, and city management remain dominant voter concerns.

A National Bellwether;

     While today’s elections are state and local, both parties are treating them as early indicators of voter sentiment heading into the 2026 midterms. With inflation still a key concern and Democrats’ approval ratings hovering below 40 percent, their lowest in nearly 40 years, Republicans hope to capitalize on voter frustration. Democrats, however, are continuing to bet that abortion rights, education, governance competence, and everything bad about President Trump can keep them competitive in traditionally blue states.

     Election results are expected to begin coming in after polls close at 8 p.m. EST, with both national parties preparing for a long night of counting and possible recounts in what analysts say could be one of the most consequential off-year elections in years.

Editor’s Note:

This report includes factual coverage of state and municipal elections held on November 4, 2025. All polling data referenced are from publicly available sources, including RealClearPolitics and Emerson College Polling averages as of November 3, 2025. Reporting by Jennifer Hodges, Political Editor, Englebrook Independent News.