Consumer Price Index Rises 2.7%, Core Inflation at 2.6%—Below Forecasts As Economy Shows Early Signs Of Easing Price Pressures
Thursday, December 18, 2025, 10:15 A.M. ET. 3 Minute Read, By Haylee Ficuciello, Economy & Finance Editor: Englebrook Independent News,
WASHINGTON, DC.- The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its long-awaited November 2025 inflation report on Thursday, revealing that consumer price growth moderated more than economists had forecasted, in a delayed release complicated by the recent federal government shutdown.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 2.7 percent in November, below the 3.1 percent increase economists polled by Dow Jones had expected. The report was initially scheduled for release on December 10, 2025, but was postponed due to disruptions in data collection caused by the shutdown.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, also came in cooler than anticipated, increasing 2.6 percent over the past 12 months. Economists had forecasted a 3.0 percent rise.
This report marks the first inflation data covering the period during which the U.S. government was partially shut down. The stoppage significantly disrupted the Bureau’s normal survey-based data collection process and ultimately led to the cancellation of the October CPI report, an unusual and rare occurrence.
According to the BLS, the agency was unable to retroactively collect the missing October survey data. As a result, Thursday’s CPI release did not include all of the standard month-to-month comparison metrics typically present in inflation reports. To complete the November index calculations, the Bureau relied in part on what it described as “nonsurvey data sources.”
Because of these limitations, economists have urged caution in interpreting the November figures as the beginning of a sustained downward trend in inflation. The absence of October data removes a key comparison point that analysts typically use to assess inflation momentum.
Even so, the cooler-than-expected inflation readings offer tentative signs that price pressures across the U.S. economy may be easing. November’s 2.7 percent CPI reading represents a deceleration from earlier in the fall and suggests progress toward price stability following years of elevated inflation.
Several categories showed slower price increases over the period, including specific services and discretionary spending areas, while shelter costs continued to rise at a more moderate pace. Taken together, the data points to a gradual stabilization in consumer prices.
Market reaction was muted but constructive, with investors reassessing expectations for future Federal Reserve policy decisions. While inflation remains above the central bank’s long-term target, the latest figures strengthen the case for a cautious approach as policymakers evaluate broader economic conditions.
Beyond inflation, other recent economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy is beginning to improve. Consumer spending has remained resilient, supply chain pressures have eased, and wage growth has moderated without a sharp rise in unemployment, developments that collectively point to a more balanced economic outlook entering 2026.
Editor’s Note:
This inflation report is based on delayed and partially reconstructed data following the federal government shutdown, which led to the cancellation of the official October CPI release and CNBC’s reporting. Readers should consider these data limitations when interpreting month-to-month inflation trends.
